C4I & Cyber Seminar Series:
Modeling C2 for Historic Events

Modeling C2 for Historic Events:
A Pearl Harbor Case Study
presented by Jon West

As technology has advanced and become more affordable, it is easier to model the complexity encountered in Command and Control (C2) operations. Modeling technology can take advantage of widely available simulation and gaming software applications to provide a distinct benefit to C2 analysis, and increase C2 agility. As simulation technologies become more powerful, richer models can be developed and made available to support C2 analysis.

In a team project for a graduate class at George Mason University, our team was tasked with modeling and providing a C2 analysis of a historical event. We chose the 1941 attack at Pearl Harbor, due to the unique C2 situation it presented and the wealth of historic data. Our goal was to determine if a C2 failure enabled the attack to proceed. Using the data available, we were able to model the event and create a Monte Carlo simulation to run through the battle. The simulation also enabled the analysis of Japanese actions to determine if they used the most efficient plan for the attack. Different C2 decisions could have led to Pearl Harbor being at a different readiness level and allowed the fleet to mobilize into deep water.

In this presentation, the speaker will show how the Monte Carlo simulation was built; starting with a Lawson’s model and advancing all the way to a more complex numerical model, and finally an implementation using Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic. The technique can also be generalized for a wide range of events. The speaker will also demonstrate an evacuation decision support tool, also developed in Excel and VBA, and discuss the numerical model used to create the excel implementation.

Jon West is a graduate student Screen Shot 2016-07-26 at 2.03.21 PMin Systems Engineering and Operations Research. Before attending George Mason, Jon received his B.S in Electrical Engineering from The University of Maryland at College Park in 2007. He then worked in industry, focusing on software radio and satellite communications. He began working with the C4I center in 2015 to develop a class project for SYST 680 into a paper for the International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium. Working with Dr. Michael Hieb, he will be presenting this paper in London in September.

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1:00 pm - 2:00 pm

C4I Center ENGR 4705