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GMU C4I Center-AFCEA Symposium
May 20-21, 2014

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Forecasting Science & Technology (ForEST)

Dr. Jason Matheny
IARPA

May 21, 2014 at 13:00

ABSTRACT

IARPA's Forecasting Science & Technology (ForeST) Program is developing and testing methods for generating accurate and timely forecasts of significant science and technology milestones. Forecasting questions are generated from indicators within the scientific and patent literatures. Forecasts are then elicited from thousands of scientists and engineers, globally, using a combinatorial prediction market (SciCast.org) developed at GMU.

BIO

DR. JASON MATHENY is a Program Manager at IARPA, where he manages the ACE, OSI, and ForeST Programs. He previously worked at Oxford University, the World Bank, the Applied Physics Laboratory, the Center for Biosecurity, and Princeton University. He holds a Ph.D. in Applied Economics from Johns Hopkins University, an M.P.H. from Johns Hopkins University, an M.B.A. from Duke University, and a B.A. from the University of Chicago. He has published on biotechnology, neurotechnology, risk analysis, demography, economics, and bioethics. He is the founder of two biotechnology companies. His work was called one of the "ideas of the year" by The NewYork Times and has been featured in The Washington Post, Nature, The Economist, Scientific American, NOVA, and Wired, among others. He received the Intelligence Community's 2013 Award for Individual Achievement in Science and Technology.

BIO

DR. HARRY VAN TREES received his B.S. from the U.S. Military Academy, West Point. He received the M.S.E.E. from the University of Maryland and the Sc.D.E.E. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Prior to joining the faculty of George Mason University in September, 1988 as a Distinguished Professor of Information Technology, and Electrical and Systems Engineering, Dr. Van Trees was President of M/A - COM Government Systems, a high technology company in the defense electronics area and a world leader in the development and production of modems, decoders, and satellite terminals for military satellite systems. Previously, Dr. Van Trees served as Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3I) and as Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense; Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence. He also served as Chief Scientist of the United States Air Force and Chief Scientist and Associate Director for Technology of the Defense Communications Agency.

Prior to his government service, Dr. Van Trees was a Professor of Electrical Engineering at M.I.T. where he published a three- volume set of books on Detection, Estimation, and Modulation Theory. The first volume is used in graduate schools throughout the world, has been translated into Russian and Chinese, and is currently in its 24th printing. The second and third volumes are widely used as references in the communications and radar/sonar area. Dr Van Trees has recently published a second edition of his classic textbook in the field of signal processing, Detection, Estimation, and Modulation Theory, Part 1. According to reviews, the second edition is a thorough revision and expansion almost doubling the size of the first edition and accounting for the new developments, thus making it again the most comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of the subject.

He has been a member of the Army Science Board, the Defense Information Systems Agency Scientific Advisory Group, the Rome Laboratories Advisory Group, and the Board of Directors of the AFCEA Educational Foundation. Dr. Van Trees is Director Emeritus of the Center of Excellence in C4I at the George Mason University. He initiated the M.Sc. program in C3I (now C4I) at GMU.