C4I Center Seminar Series:
Theories and Models for Forecasting
Innovation-A Proof of Concept for
SciCast Prediction Market

Dr. Anamaria Berea of the C4I Center presents
“Theories and Models for Forecasting Innovation-A
Proof of Concept for SciCast Prediction Market”

MIST/C Recording

Innovation is a social phenomenon that has been studied extensively by multiple fields, from economics and entrepreneurship to engineering and computer science. The recent surge in prediction markets as platforms for crowdsourcing information has brought into attention the possibility of forecasting the emergence and success of innovations in a new way. While the models and theories of innovation have been more successful in explaining innovation ex post than in forecasting it, the prediction markets have the potential of assessing the emergence and success of an innovation ex ante. This presentation is an argument for prediction markets as a method for advancing the study of innovation and entrepreneurship.

Dr. Anamaria Berea has a PhD in Computational Social Science from George Mason University and a PhD in International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies in Romania. Berea_photo2Anamaria joined the DAGGRE research project in 2011 as a graduate research assistant and an advanced doctoral student. Within this project, she has been working on specific topics using social network analysis, Bayesian network modeling, GIS and prediction markets in order to forecast world events. She is working on managing the forecasting problems on the prediction market, on decomposing and modeling specific forecasting problems, such as the Eurozone breakup, Greek Exit or the Failed States Index and on analyzing the role of autotrading algorithms for forecasting accuracy and the overall market activity.

The research and paper she had developed for modeling hawala networks won an Assyst Bursary Award from ESSA (European Social Simulation Association), as well as an official recommendation letter from the Head of Counter-Terrorism in Calcutta, India.

For the past two and a half years, Anamaria has been working on projects involving prediction markets and computational analyses of various economic and social phenomena. She is currently working on SciCast.

1:30 pm - 2:30 pm

Engineering Building Room 4705